Summary

The war in Ukraine has reached a pivotal turning point as intensified military engagements and heightened international pressure reshape the conflict’s trajectory. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the war has evolved into a protracted and multifaceted struggle involving conventional battles, drone warfare, and strategic attrition. In 2024, Russian forces have made some territorial gains, particularly in eastern Ukraine, but Ukrainian defensive operations—supported by advanced Western weaponry and evolving tactics—have increasingly slowed Russian advances and reclaimed key areas.
European allies have significantly escalated their political, economic, and military support for Ukraine, collectively surpassing the United States in total aid commitments by 2024. This support includes substantial financial packages, advanced weapon systems, and coordinated training efforts under frameworks such as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group and NATO-led initiatives. Concurrently, the European Union has imposed successive sanctions on Russia, aiming to weaken its war capacity and counter Moscow’s efforts to destabilize European institutions through disinformation and political influence operations.
Russia, meanwhile, has adapted its military doctrine to focus on slow, positional warfare amid challenges such as personnel losses and logistical constraints. Despite facing extensive Western sanctions, Russia has maintained its war effort by sourcing equipment and energy exports through alternative markets and leveraging political and military influence across the post-Soviet space. Moscow’s strategic objectives extend beyond Ukraine, aiming to undermine NATO and reassert dominance over its near abroad.
This turning point underscores broader geopolitical implications for European security and transatlantic relations. While NATO cohesion and Western unity remain critical deterrents against further Russian aggression, ongoing challenges—including fluctuating military aid, internal political dynamics within Europe and the U.S., and Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics—highlight the fragile balance sustaining the conflict’s current status. The outcome of this phase will significantly influence the future security architecture of Europe and the resilience of democratic alliances worldwide.

Background

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has dramatically reshaped political, security, and societal dynamics across the region. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a wide range of military engagements—including land, naval, and air battles—have taken place, involving prolonged campaigns as well as localized intense combat operations. The conflict has prompted a significant international response, notably from European allies and other global partners.
Efforts to counter Russian aggression have involved coordinated military aid facilitated through mechanisms such as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which began with 41 countries in April 2022 and expanded to 54 countries by February 2023, including all NATO member states. The United States has played a critical role by providing approximately 20% of the military aid, described as the most lethal and important portion.
Simultaneously, Russia has employed a multifaceted approach to influence and destabilize Europe through political, informational, and covert means. This includes supporting extremist groups, exploiting tensions within countries with sizable Russian minorities, and leveraging networks such as the World National Conservative Movement to pressure European decision-makers. The overarching strategy targets divisions at multiple levels: undermining European institutions like NATO and the EU, fomenting interstate distrust, and creating internal divisions within countries.
In response, the European Union and its member states have implemented a series of measures aimed at combating Russia’s malign influence, especially following instances where Russian-backed actors spread disinformation and sowed conflict around electoral processes, including EU parliamentary elections. The EU has also imposed successive packages of restrictive measures, such as the tenth package adopted on the first anniversary of the invasion, to increase pressure on Russia.
Amidst these developments, independent research organizations continue to analyze and provide clear-eyed assessments of the evolving situation to inform policy decisions. The Russia and Eurasia Program, for example, maintains ongoing updates and alerts on the conflict’s trajectory and its wider geopolitical implications. Meanwhile, the human cost of the war is memorialized by Russian military units, as seen in ceremonies commemorating soldiers killed in the conflict.

Recent Developments

In 2024, the conflict in Ukraine has entered a critical phase marked by intensified military engagements and shifting strategic dynamics. Russian forces have made notable territorial gains, particularly in the eastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine. After a prolonged siege, Russia seized the key stronghold of Avdiivka in February, consolidating its control over parts of the Donetsk region. Subsequent offensives throughout spring, summer, and fall 2024 saw Russian advances westward from Avdiivka toward Pokrovsk and Selydove, alongside renewed operations near Toretsk and Donetsk City. Despite some localized setbacks, such as the stalled offensive in the Kharkiv region in May 2024, Russian troops continued to push deeper into Ukrainian territory, cumulatively capturing over 4,000 square kilometers in contested areas by late 2024.
Ukrainian forces have faced significant challenges in holding the frontline amidst sustained Russian pressure. Defensive operations remain the primary focus, particularly in key sectors such as Pokrovsk, where fierce battles persist. The reliance on drone warfare has increased on both sides, with Ukraine employing unmanned systems to target Russian infantry, while Russian forces have responded with air and naval drone countermeasures, especially in contested zones like the Black Sea and near Crimea. Ukrainian efforts to incorporate naval drones into their air defense capabilities have complicated Russian attempts to neutralize these threats, underscoring the evolving nature of the battlefield.
Strategically, Ukraine has shifted toward a defensive attrition approach, leveraging technological innovation, tactical adaptability, and distributed operations to slow Russian advances and preserve manpower. This approach aims to deny Russia operational momentum and stabilize front lines despite ongoing territorial losses. However, Ukraine’s capacity to mount bold offensive operations remains constrained by political and logistical challenges, including delays in Western aid delivery, high casualty rates, and concerns over manpower shortages. Consequently, the Ukrainian military strategy emphasizes holding current positions and maintaining control over approximately 82% of the country’s territory.
On the international front, Western allies have intensified pressure on Russia through a combination of political, economic, and military means. Russian political influence activities continue to target European nations, exploiting social divisions and supporting pro-Russian extremist groups to undermine NATO and European unity. The broader geopolitical objectives of Moscow include reasserting dominance over the former Soviet space, weakening democratic alliances, and destabilizing the international rules-based order.
In response, NATO and its partners have sought to enhance their air and missile defense capabilities, as exemplified by the European Phased Adaptive Approach, to counter Russian threats more effectively. The conflict remains a focal point for international policy and security considerations, with continued efforts to adapt military strategies on both sides as the war persists into its third year.

European Allies’ Involvement

The European Union (EU) and its member states have demonstrated a sustained and multifaceted commitment to supporting Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. This support spans political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic dimensions, coordinated in close collaboration with international partners such as the United Nations, NATO, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and the G7. The EU’s resolve is encapsulated in official statements underscoring the necessity to provide aid “for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed,” with the goal that “Russia must not prevail”.
Military assistance from European allies is substantial and continuously evolving. Since 2014, individual EU member states have contributed a diverse range of military, financial, and non-lethal aid. By February 2023, EU institutions, alongside 45 sovereign countries and other entities, had collectively donated equipment including electronic warfare systems, armored infantry fighting vehicles (AIFV-B-C25s), mini excavators, and specialized vehicles such as robotic mine-clearing units and all-terrain armored transports. Notably, the Estonian Voluntary Rescue Association and Latvian groups have provided specialized hardware, while medical supplies and medevac helicopters have been donated by organizations from the United Kingdom and Poland respectively.
Beyond direct aid, the EU has mobilized significant financial resources to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities. This includes €18.1 billion in macro-financial assistance, largely funded through the G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration loans initiative, which is planned to be repaid with interest from frozen Russian assets by 2025. In addition, a €500 million allocation under the Ammunition Support Action Plan (ASAP) aims to expand manufacturing capacity for artillery ammunition and missiles, while a further €1 billion has been approved under the European Peace Facility for joint procurement of ammunition and missiles.
The EU’s strategic efforts to coordinate military assistance have intensified in 2024, with NATO assuming an enhanced role in the management and delivery of military aid and training programs in conjunction with the US-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group. This coordination is vital as Europe seeks to balance commitments with actual allocation of resources; the Kiehl Institute has noted that while European assistance surpasses that of the United States in total commitment, the gap between pledged and disbursed funding remains significant. To match U.S. military aid levels fully, Europe would need to approximately double its current arms support.
Despite these efforts, military aid to Ukraine experienced a notable decline in mid-2025, especially during July and August, even as financial and humanitarian assistance remained stable and largely EU-driven. This fluctuation highlights ongoing challenges in maintaining consistent levels of military support amidst the complex geopolitical landscape.
Public sentiment within Ukraine reflects strong support for deeper integration with Europe. Two-thirds of Ukrainians view EU membership as equally important as NATO membership, signaling a desire for a secure anchoring not only in the transatlantic defense alliance but also within the broader European political framework.

Russia’s Position and Response

Russia has maintained a strategic initiative throughout the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, leveraging a steady supply of personnel and equipment despite significant losses. Estimates suggest that Russia has contracted approximately 30,000 soldiers monthly and recommissioned thousands of armored vehicles from Soviet-era stocks. Additionally, it has mitigated ammunition shortages by importing shells and missiles from countries such as North Korea and Iran. A critical factor contributing to Russia’s relative advantage has been its increased air power; in the first eleven months of 2024, Russian air and drone strikes more than doubled compared to the previous year, underscoring Moscow’s growing dominance in aerial operations.
The Russian military has adapted to operational challenges by shifting away from the Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) model and optimizing its tactical unit structures for a slow, positional war. This adaptation reflects adjustments to degraded command-and-control capabilities and the nature of the current battlefield, emphasizing entrenched defensive positions rather than rapid maneuvers. Moscow’s objectives extend beyond subjugating Ukraine; it seeks to reassert its hegemony over the former Soviet space, undermine democratic institutions, and weaken NATO, which it views as a significant obstacle to its European ambitions.
Despite facing extensive Western sanctions aimed at crippling its military-industrial complex and reducing revenues from commodity exports, Russia has found alternative markets for its energy exports, particularly in China and India. This strategic pivot has helped sustain its economy amid efforts by the European Union and other partners to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and impose broad economic restrictions. Russia’s unilateral discontinuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in mid-2023 further exemplifies its assertive stance amid the international sanctions regime.
Russian leadership, including President Vladimir Putin and senior intelligence officials, have publicly asserted confidence in achieving their war aims, highlighting the strategic initiative held by Moscow across all areas of the conflict. However, these gains come at a high cost, and Russia continues to face significant operational and logistical challenges as the war evolves.

Implications of the Turning Point

The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has reached a pivotal turning point marked by Ukraine’s persistent advances and the intensification of international pressure on Russia. This shift has significant implications both on the battlefield and within the broader geopolitical landscape.
Ukraine’s strategy in 2024 reflects a transition to active defense and attrition warfare, leveraging technological superiority and tactical innovation to stall Russian advances and regain territory in key areas such as Avdiivka and Kherson. Equipped with Western weaponry, including anticipated F-16 fighter jets, Ukraine has effectively repelled Russian forces, enabling more potent missile strikes, notably into Crimea. This defensive posture aims not only to prevent further Russian territorial gains but also to create conditions favorable to Ukraine in what is increasingly a war of attrition. The concept of turning Ukraine into a “steel porcupine”—a heavily fortified state designed to repel future Russian offensives—underpins long-term deterrence strategies centered on domestic defense capacity and civilian resilience.
On the Russian side, adaptations to the prolonged conflict have included abandoning the traditional Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) model and optimizing for slow, positional warfare, which aligns with their degraded command capabilities and limited operational momentum. Despite some tactical gains in the Donetsk region and the launch of offensives such as the May 2024 Kharkiv attack, Russian forces have generally been unable to achieve decisive breakthroughs and have experienced stalled advances. High-level command changes within Ukraine, including the replacement of Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi with General Oleksandr Syrsky, indicate strategic recalibrations in response to these challenges.
The international response has been crucial in shaping the conflict’s trajectory. European allies have significantly increased their support to Ukraine, surpassing even the United States in total aid commitments. By March 2024, Western governments had pledged over $380 billion in aid, with European contributions reaching €132 billion by the end of 2024 compared to €114 billion from the U.S.. This growing European involvement reflects a recognition of the need for autonomous security capabilities, reducing reliance on the U.S. as the transatlantic relationship shifts toward a more self-sufficient European defense posture. The European Union has also intensified sanctions against Russia, targeting key sectors such as energy, banking, and military industries, and implementing measures to counteract Russian legal and economic maneuvers within Europe. These sanctions aim to systematically weaken Russia’s warfighting capacity and signal an enduring European commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Strategically, the conflict underscores the fragility of NATO’s deterrence, as some analysts argue that Article 5’s collective defense principle may be challenged under persistent Russian pressure on European allies. While NATO cohesion and U.S. commitment remain primary deterrents against broader Russian aggression, Europe’s relative disadvantage in land forces mass and firepower compared to Russia presents ongoing vulnerabilities. Concurrently, Russia’s use of regional organizations like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union exemplifies its efforts to expand influence through “soft power” and economic coercion, complicating the security environment in Eastern Europe.

Public Opinion and Media Coverage

Public opinion across Europe and Ukraine remains a critical factor influencing the ongoing conflict and the international response to Russia’s aggression. Despite Moscow’s battlefield advances, the morale of the Ukrainian public has not been decisively damaged, reflecting a sustained resilience and determination to resist occupation. However, political crises within European countries and developments such as the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency pose questions about the longevity and consistency of Western support for Ukraine.
European governments have taken a proactive stance in addressing disinformation and political influence operations orchestrated by Russia. Several countries, including France and Sweden, have actively responded to attempts at interference, such as the hacking of Emmanuel Macron’s 2017 campaign. The European Union has implemented measures to counter disinformation, although these efforts have been described as uneven and still in the early stages. In contrast, the United States is perceived to lag behind Europe both in conceptualizing the threat and in executing countermeasures.
Moreover, Russia’s use of political influence activities seeks to exploit societal divisions within Europe, notably through support for extremist and radical anti-immigration groups aligned with Russia’s “divide and rule” strategy. These groups create tensions and exert pressure on European policymakers, complicating a unified response to Russia